the major premise that it is more exposed in North Africa;
as you know, the Libyan crisis has led to the temporary closure of the pipeline GreenStream, through which normally arrives in Italy gas to meet approximately 10% of domestic consumption. In reality, while remaining the uncertainty related to exposure of the group to North Africa and the Middle East, and then fears of a contagion of the crisis to other countries, Eni paradoxically, if you stop in Libya does not last long, could also benefit in terms of margins because the price of oil has risen in recent days. However, a concern to investors right now is the time variable. How long, in fact, Eni will be forced not to use the pipeline from which they transited 9.4 billion cubic meters of gas in 2010, 11% of domestic consumption, amounting to an annual production of 240,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day ?
Today I received a mail da un analista del settore Oil che mi raccontava come calcolare in questo momento l'impatto della crisi libica sui conti dell'Eni, sia molto difficile; secondo il quale l'impatto potrebbe essere pari all'6-8% dell'Ebit del gruppo, se si assume che non arrivi più petrolio e gas dalla Libia almeno per un anno. Ovviamente si tratta di uno scenario molto pessimistico.
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